bahrainthismonth.com | SEPTEMBER 2026 OPINION 67 Water Worries Dr. Jarmo Kotilaine is a seasoned development economist with 30 years’ experience across academia, consultancy, banking and government. Many Gulf residents hoping to find a respite from extreme heat through a European holiday have been sorely disappointed this year. By the second week of August, Western Europe was facing its fifth heatwave of the year. This has had a profound impact on many aspects of life. Budapest saw water levels in the Danube fall below 30cm, while there was a real possibility that the River Rhine might split into two. River navigation, a key mode of logistics for much of the continent, is facing massive challenges as boats and barges are forced to dramatically reduce their loads, which is further contributing to inflationary pressures. Quite apart from its devastating impact on agriculture and fishing, the drought is also disrupting power generation, whether hydroelectric power or nuclear stations that require water for cooling. Across much of the continent, electricity is being rationed and many companies have been forced to cut back production. Historically, much manufacturing was built along navigable waterways to gain access to power and transportation alike. A Growing Global Crisis While climate change may be behind Europe’s woes this summer, other factors add to water-related challenges around the world. The UN in 2024 reported that roughly half the global population now experiences “severe water scarcity” annually. In many developing countries, population growth has been driving increasingly unsustainable water extraction. Inefficient, in the sense of overly water-intensive, agricultural practices often add to this. In the Gulf, one of the most arid parts of the world, heavy water consumption was for decades driven by generous and ultimately unsustainable subsidies. They depleted underground aquifers and drove increased salinity in coastal areas, sometimes with the consequence of making agriculture there impossible. Desertification now affects 39 percent of Iraq and 54 percent of agricultural land has degraded, mainly due to soil salinity caused by historically low water levels in the Mesopotamian rivers and reduced rainfall. When climate change adds to these structural drivers through increasingly frequent droughts, parts of the developing world risk becoming close to unliveable. Yemen, lauded by the ancients as “Felix Arabia” (“happy Arabia”) for its verdant hills, is thought to be the first country on the planet to run out of water. Indonesia is moving its capital from water-scarce Jakarta and several megacities around the Global South are witnessing sinking water tables. The great rivers of the Middle East are facing potentially existential challenges as populous countries along their courses increase extraction, whether for agriculture, power generation or oil field injection. Iraq has seen water inflows through the Euphrates and the Tigris fall by 30–40 percent since the 1970s. At the present rates, experts forecast that by the year 2030, the twin rivers will shrink to 50 percent of their capacity and potentially risk running dry by 2040. Similar challenges cloud the future of the Nile. Large-scale population displacement is already happening in many parts of the world and looks set to intensify further. There is little relief in sight as most of the world’s population growth will take place in Africa and Asia in the coming decades, in large part in countries that already face major water security challenges. As disputes around the Nile, the Euphrates and the Tigris show, countries’ water management can affect their neighbours, stoking the prospect of conflict. The bad news for the world is that all the key drivers of water scarcity look set to intensify in the coming years, whether climate change, population pressures in the Global South or increasing water use by governments pursuing economic development on an unsustainable basis. Building Water Resilience The better news is that, severe as the threats are, much can be done to mitigate the situation and build resilience. For instance, some 70 percent of global freshwater use is for agriculture. There are substantial opportunities for rationalisation through more efficient irrigation methods and less water-intensive crops. More efficient conveyance of water can reduce water loss, something that applies to all kinds of water use, as the challenges around ageing infrastructure in the West have shown. But the whole system of governance around water use offers opportunities for optimisation. For instance, we can boost availability by storing water at times when it is plentiful, for example by artificially recharging aquifers. Wastewater recycling can boost supply, further facilitated by using different grades of water for different purposes. Technology and Innovation Technological innovation has a vital role to play in bringing about greater transparency and driving efficiency across the water cycle. Through monitoring, whether by sensors or satellites, we can anticipate weather patterns, identify problems and optimise water consumption. Ongoing monitoring and data analytics can deliver much more informed consumption patterns and decisions than was the case in the past. Technology is also opening up new ways of generating freshwater. A resident of the Gulf may be tempted to see the answer in water desalination, which is indeed gaining ground globally. However, most available technologies to date have been costly and highly energyintensive. New opportunities are emerging through increased technological efficiency and innovation, as well as alternative energy sources, with examples including solar and wave energy. Similarly, technological innovation is boosting water recycling and wastewater treatment. The Need to Act Even amid these glimmers of hope, however, it is important to recognise that past assumptions about water availability and use are rapidly being rendered irrelevant by trends that are difficult to halt or reverse in the foreseeable future. Under the circumstances, complacent inaction is not an option. In this increasingly uncertain and unpredictable world, we need to build resilience in our water systems while developing much more holistic practices around risk management and mitigation. European logistics has responded to droughts through new land transportation options and vessel designs. More generally, it is typically the case that every problem has a solution, even if it may not always be immediately apparent. The bottom line, however, is that the world has changed and the time to act is now. We do not want crises to catch us unprepared. That is why investment in monitoring, good water governance and innovation is so critically important. Fire prevention, at the end of the day, is far cheaper and easier than firefighting.
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