bahrainthismonth.com | AUGUST 2026 OPINION 94 Growing Older Dr. Jarmo Kotilaine is a seasoned development economist with 30 years’ experience across academia, consultancy, banking and government. The world is growing older at an accelerating pace. After decades of alarmist projections about overpopulation, we are rapidly nearing a point when the global population will begin to shrink. The rate of decline in fertility globally doubled during the first decade of the current millennium and once more during the subsequent decade, dropping by an average of nearly 2 percent a year. Falling Fertility Rates The replacement total fertility rate required for a stable population is approximately 2.1, but a growing number of countries are now reporting figures well below this. In fact, fertility rates have plunged to around one or lower in countries ranging from South Korea to Singapore, Ukraine and China. According to UN data, some 137 countries and territories have seen declines below 2.0. This now also includes the world’s most populous country, India, which has witnessed a dramatic drop from around 3.5 in 2000 to 1.9 today, with many parts of the country far below this level. Only roughly one-third of the global population now lives in countries where fertility is above the replacement rate. The only continent to exceed the replacement rate in 2024 was Africa, while the Pacific Islands also did so. Asia as a whole now stands below 2, although Central Asia, Western Asia and, by the thinnest of margins, Southern Asia remain above it. All the Gulf countries, bar Oman and Saudi Arabia, have seen falls well below 2, while even Oman and Saudi Arabia are below 2.5. By 2024, some 60 countries and territories were recording outright population declines. While some of the fastest decliners were very small islands, the list also includes nearly all Eastern European countries, including Russia. In Western Europe, Germany, Italy, Austria, Portugal and Spain now face dwindling populations. The same trend was also evident in some of the populous countries of East Asia, including China, which until 2023 was the world’s most populous country, as well as Japan, South Korea and Thailand. Sustaining the current population trends for another 25 years would mean that the world’s total population would begin to shrink just after 2060. Some projections see this happening sooner. The Demographic Transition Demographic trends are changing dramatically across the world as birth rates decline and life expectancy generally continues to rise. This demographic transition has been progressing for decades, albeit with significant differences between countries. The shift has been driven by factors ranging from government social support and dramatically reduced child mortality to evolving social attitudes. Educational attainment and workforce participation among women have risen significantly, typically resulting in delayed marriages and fewer children. Some now suggest that technology is giving rise to an increasingly atomistic society with less interpersonal interaction and growing selectivity. In much of the world, the cost of living is a major factor shaping decisions. Perhaps the most salient consequence of these trends is a rapidly growing elderly population. Much of the ‘rich world’ is on track to see the ratio of its working-age population to people aged 65 and over drop from 7:1 in the 1990s to 2:1 by 2050. Even many emerging markets are expected to see a decline to close to 2:1 by 2060. This has profound economic, social and political implications. In particular, more and more economies are facing labour and other constraints as the working-age population shrinks, while the population dependent on its output and fiscal contributions continues to rise. Governments across the globe are facing mounting sustainability challenges linked to their pension and welfare systems. Healthcare also faces significant pressures in response to ageing. Searching for Solutions What can be done? Possible solutions range from trying to reverse the trend to adapting and making societies work with fewer and older people. Some countries have tried to address the issue through policy changes. Some have introduced more generous financial assistance for mothers, with Hungary allocating an estimated 5.5 percent of GDP to family incentives, while China abolished its one-child policy in 2015. However, the practical impact of such measures has proved limited and, at best, temporary. This reflects the reality that popular expectations have profoundly changed, while many see childbearing not only as a financial burden but also as a constraint on their lifestyle. Reshaping such attitudes is unlikely to be a fast process. Another alternative is immigration, capitalising on international differences in the pace of the demographic transition. By 2030, roughly half of the new workers entering the global labour force are expected to hail from subSaharan Africa. However, immigration is not a panacea, with even poorer countries now ageing rapidly. India’s working-age population could, in fact, peak as soon as 2030. While this has implications for the supply of labour, it also creates the prospect of many emerging markets growing old before they grow rich. As recent trends in Europe and elsewhere show, the fact that immigration may be a technical solution does not necessarily make it politically popular. Even countries facing serious demographic imbalances have seen marked rises in anti-immigrant sentiment. Adapting to an Older World This places a considerable onus on adaptation, an area where progress is proving far more encouraging. Continued advances in healthcare are extending people’s lives and, above all, their productive lifespans. This is allowing people to stay economically active for longer and has made it possible for many governments to raise the statutory retirement age, which was typically set decades earlier amid very different demographic realities Several countries have also shown that a population decline need not entail an economic decline. The accelerating pace of disruptive technological change has boosted productivity and offered new solutions, not least robotics to assist the elderly. Today, many fret about job losses caused by AI. However, such technology can also allow societies to grow economic activity in new ways, even in the face of rapid ageing. Even as questions abound, human ingenuity quite possibly holds the solutions, much as it helped to avoid a Malthusian demographic catastrophe in the past.
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